But this doesn't hold for wider ranges, if your villain raises 70% of the hands, that doesn't mean he is never raising bottom 30% of his hands, that should be clear. That's why a population based approach is so hard.

I was pondering what you where saying about the bottom % of the range and I was wondering if it even matters. Lets assume he raises 100% of buttons 3x and we call a standard defense of say 38% of hands. Our EV vs that range is 59.9%. So if he only raises 70% of hands and we still call 38% of hands our EV is 56.18%. So even if we totally exclude the last 30% of hands our EV is still positive. Is this right or am I missing something?

A million of things, how did you reach 59.9% and how did you reach 56.18%?equity? Just because of showdown value? This is not an all in. You are missing that you are OOP and that you have 3 streets left to play. You can't just calculate your EV that easy.

I just stoved it real quick using showdown equity. Yes that assumes I am OOP because I have to play a tighter range..but not tight enough to be exploited. I am just trying to get a grasp of how much that missing 30% would make a difference so I just did a quick range vs range example. Postflop I have it calculating EV way differently..but I am not accounting for that 30% at all as I have eliminated it entirely from his range.

Can you show me a EV example showing the difference? Sounds like I have a leak as I do not have it accounting for unknown possibilities and from what everybody is saying I probably should. Thanks

Again, showdown equity doesn't relate to actual equity at all. Since it all depends how you play the post flop. Showdown equity assumes it is checked down to the river.

Suppose you have 22 OTB with 2000 chips. You raise to 40, villain 3bets to 120.
Villain has never 3bet before on a sample size of 1K hands. Let's assume he 3bets with aces and kings.
If we call and get his stack every time we hit the set, is our EV 18% as pokerstove tells us? It's more like 500%.