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 Post subject: HU GTO bot and variance
PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 8:09 am 
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Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2013 11:55 am
Posts: 64
Hey all

Just wondering how many HU NL tourneys you'd reckon a GTO bot needs to play on average to average to get an idea of whether it's actually a winning bot or just getting lucky? And what % of tourneys would you expect it to be winning at the micro/low stakes?


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:34 pm 
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Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2013 2:21 pm
Posts: 26
It depends. ;)

For HU tourneys you can do a binominal test. Let's say you need to win 55% of your tourneys to break even after rake. Then you choose H_0: p_0 = 0.55. Now say you played 200 tourneys and won 120. Then p-hat = 120/200 = 0.6.
Now do a right-tailed hypothesis test: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=te ... 2C+n%3D200
And look at the p-value (0.06731 in this example). It means that we can say with 1-0.06731 = 93% confidence that our winrate is over 55%.

You can also calculate a confidence interval for your winrate. Use google to figure out how to do this.

Edit: Or be lazy and use this link: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=confidence+interval+for+binomial


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:05 pm 
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http://web.archive.org/web/200711111524 ... php?t=1872
http://poker-ai.org/archive/pokerai.org ... t=variance
http://poker-ai.org/archive/www.pokerai ... =30&t=3597
http://www.poker-ai.org/archive/www.pok ... f=3&t=1606


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