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nefton
 Post subject: Extended ICM
PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:41 am 
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Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 10:31 am
Posts: 139
Analizing of little tournaments base (40 000 6 players tournaments) I founded that ICM is good, but not enouth.
1. It does not take into account the player's position in relation to the blinds. For example BB position have significant less chanses to win tournament then SB or BTN positions.
2. It does not take into account players cooperation versus short stack player. And statistic shows that this regularity takes place.

Is there any some more advanced general ICM models? Or I should just do some corrections to ICM, based on position and chips for the specific tournament of my interest.
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nefton
 Post subject: Re: Extended ICM
PostPosted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:22 am 
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Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 10:31 am
Posts: 139
Maybe someone will be interested. Here is my data to show you that sometimes ICM does not works.
Tournaments thar I investigate is 6 max SNG. Payouts = 2 tickets of the same value. All others take nothing.
I'm considering below situations when 3 players remaining in tournament.
Some explanations:
FSM(finite state machine) - You call it Hand.
Stacks - Start stacks
Dopuski(Tolerances) - +/- percent of Stacks to validate specific hand as valid hand.
Good_fsm - valid hands
ICM - ICM(Stacks)
EQ_ICM - Average ICM from all valid hands. (In case of skewing in the data)

1. Dont find spoiler tag here, so all data in Research.txt [deleted]
2. The extension txt is not allowed. So, temporaly (while can not do better) post it here.
Quote:
============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:2433 [1.3%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1000 1000 1000 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 20% 20% 10% ]
Wins: [ 67.6% 66.7% 65.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.666 0.665 0.669 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.667 0.667 0.667 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:1887 [1.0%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1100 1100 800 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 20% 20% 10% ]
Wins: [ 72.7% 70.9% 56.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.710 0.710 0.580 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.712 0.712 0.575 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:958 [0.5%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1200 1200 600 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 20% 20% 10% ]
Wins: [ 81.0% 78.7% 40.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.766 0.762 0.472 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.767 0.767 0.467 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:827 [0.5%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1250 1250 500 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 25% 25% 10% ]
Wins: [ 83.4% 81.9% 34.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.795 0.794 0.411 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.798 0.798 0.405 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:601 [0.3%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1300 1300 400 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 30% 10% ]
Wins: [ 87.2% 85.7% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.826 0.827 0.347 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.831 0.831 0.337 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:581 [0.3%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1350 1350 300 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 30% 20% ]
Wins: [ 87.3% 87.1% 25.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.863 0.863 0.274 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.868 0.868 0.264 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:300 [0.2%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1350 1350 200 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 30% 30% ]
Wins: [ 94.7% 92.3% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.901 0.898 0.201 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.850 0.850 0.176 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:1040 [0.6%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 300 1350 1350 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 30% 30% ]
Wins: [ 23.7% 89.7% 86.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.276 0.862 0.862 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.264 0.868 0.868 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:1266 [0.7%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 400 1300 1300 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 20% 30% 30% ]
Wins: [ 30.7% 85.5% 83.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.350 0.826 0.824 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.337 0.831 0.831 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:2149 [1.2%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 500 1250 1250 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 20% 30% 30% ]
Wins: [ 37.6% 81.6% 80.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.419 0.793 0.788 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.405 0.798 0.798 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:3180 [1.8%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 600 1200 1200 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 20% 30% 30% ]
Wins: [ 44.8% 78.1% 77.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.480 0.761 0.759 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.467 0.767 0.767 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:4234 [2.3%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 700 1150 1150 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 20% 30% 30% ]
Wins: [ 53.4% 74.2% 72.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.535 0.731 0.733 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.523 0.738 0.738 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:243 [0.1%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1400 200 1400 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 20% 30% ]
Wins: [ 93.8% 17.7% 88.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.905 0.193 0.901 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.908 0.183 0.908 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:719 [0.4%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1350 300 1350 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 20% 30% ]
Wins: [ 90.0% 22.5% 87.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.863 0.277 0.860 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.868 0.264 0.868 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:1337 [0.7%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1300 400 1300 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 20% 30% ]
Wins: [ 85.7% 30.6% 83.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.825 0.350 0.825 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.831 0.337 0.831 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:2201 [1.2%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1250 500 1250 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 20% 30% ]
Wins: [ 82.6% 36.9% 80.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.790 0.420 0.790 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.798 0.405 0.798 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:3226 [1.8%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1200 600 1200 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 20% 30% ]
Wins: [ 78.8% 43.9% 77.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.760 0.480 0.760 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.767 0.467 0.767 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:4353 [2.4%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1150 700 1150 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 20% 30% ]
Wins: [ 75.4% 51.5% 73.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.733 0.536 0.731 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.738 0.523 0.738 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:5355 [3.0%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 1100 800 1100 0 0 0 ]
Dopuski:[ 30% 20% 30% ]
Wins: [ 72.9% 57.6% 69.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.708 0.587 0.706 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
ICM: [ 0.712 0.575 0.712 0.000 0.000 0.000 ]
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botishardwork
 Post subject: Re: Extended ICM
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:54 pm 
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Junior Member

Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:11 am
Posts: 13
nefton wrote:
Analizing of little tournaments base (40 000 6 players tournaments) I founded that ICM is good, but not enouth.
1. It does not take into account the player's position in relation to the blinds. For example BB position have significant less chanses to win tournament then SB or BTN positions.
2. It does not take into account players cooperation versus short stack player. And statistic shows that this regularity takes place.

Is there any some more advanced general ICM models? Or I should just do some corrections to ICM, based on position and chips for the specific tournament of my interest.

We have Future Game Simulation in our ICM models and we actually consider players cooperation versus short stack sometimes in our models as well. Maybe you can try these?
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