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Shalako, is your bot currently profitable?
My FL and NL Zoom bots are but I am still working on HUNL Cash which is getting close to being ready for real world testing. I am using nothing but expert system rules. Buckets and all that stuff is over my head. This has been one of the hardest bots to create by far. I have 8 months of work into it so far although I did take a big 3-4 month break.
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Pegga, if you never eliminate any hands from the opponents' ranges, how do you sample from the range? Is this fast enough to deal with ring games?
Eliminating hands from a likely range is not that difficult as I stated above. I think it took me two weeks of tweaking before it worked correctly although I am constantly improving it. I have no idea about sampling or whatnot so I had to use hand rankings and such to form a likely range based on his stats. For me what the hand rankings consist of is critical. Sometimes its way off but most of the time the villains hand was in the bots predicted range. I think its possible to get up to around 70% accuracy. This is why I think preflop is critical as getting the range accurate makes post flop much much easier imo. I personally cannot think of a better way to do it so I have to eliminate hands from a range based on his stats and his post flop actions. You can pretty much cut his range by a third on each street. How? because he is either betting for value or he is not..its that simple. He could be betting for thin value but those are hands you might be able to fold out.
Example. A guy raises 80% of buttons. You flat with KJs. Flop comes 5dJs7s. You check and he leads and you call for whatever reason instead of raising. The turn comes an Ah and he leads out again. Ok..so he is still betting with 100% of his range. So all he could be betting for value now is Ax+, flush draws, and a few gutters. All his Jx hands now are thin value, so is 7x and 5x, even KK and QQ. Every other pair (22-66) he could not bet the turn with as he would not get called by worse. So in essence he can only bet a very small portion of his range for value. The larger part of his range you have a very good chance of folding out with a 3x check raise. There is a huge amount of fold equity here. This is why floating with complete air is a key poker concept when you know his range to be weak.
But..the flip side is what Peppa is saying..should you ever eliminate a hand from a range? Its a very good question. Keep all hands in range but weight them according makes sense too. I think in a vacuum its probably correct. I am not really sure what the best method is but I am trying to have the bot think like a pro and they are very good at narrowing a villains range down...sometimes super human.
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I'm taking this problem slowly one step at a time, so currently trying to make a fast multiple range vs range winning probability estimator. If each player can have 100 different hands, with 6 players, that's 10^12 possibilities. So must do range vs range, basically bucketing, but changing the boundaries at each street.
Well post flop its not going to be as hard as you think. First of all if your playing preflop correctly your going to have very few multiway situations as you should be isolating as much as possible. This means when it is multiway the bot is going to have to have top pair+ or a good draw in order to win anyway so the math is not really going to make much difference. So your sitting on the BB out of position with middle pair overcard multiway. Calculating range vs range vs range is pointless. Fold.