Statistics: Posted by spears — Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:05 pm
]]>2013-11-09T13:34:08+00:002013-11-09T13:34:08+00:00http://poker-ai.org/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=2634&p=5217#p5217<![CDATA[Re: HU GTO bot and variance]]>
For HU tourneys you can do a binominal test. Let's say you need to win 55% of your tourneys to break even after rake. Then you choose H_0: p_0 = 0.55. Now say you played 200 tourneys and won 120. Then p-hat = 120/200 = 0.6. Now do a right-tailed hypothesis test: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=te ... 2C+n%3D200 And look at the p-value (0.06731 in this example). It means that we can say with 1-0.06731 = 93% confidence that our winrate is over 55%.
You can also calculate a confidence interval for your winrate. Use google to figure out how to do this.
Statistics: Posted by flopnflush — Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:34 pm
]]>2013-11-09T08:09:19+00:002013-11-09T08:09:19+00:00http://poker-ai.org/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=2634&p=5211#p5211<![CDATA[HU GTO bot and variance]]> Just wondering how many HU NL tourneys you'd reckon a GTO bot needs to play on average to average to get an idea of whether it's actually a winning bot or just getting lucky? And what % of tourneys would you expect it to be winning at the micro/low stakes?
Statistics: Posted by OneDayItllWork — Sat Nov 09, 2013 8:09 am