Poker-AI.org Poker AI and Botting Discussion Forum 2017-04-23T18:54:32+00:00 http://poker-ai.org/phpbb/feed.php?f=24&t=3035 2017-04-23T18:54:32+00:00 2017-04-23T18:54:32+00:00 http://poker-ai.org/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=3035&p=7177#p7177 <![CDATA[Re: Extended ICM]]> nefton wrote:

Analizing of little tournaments base (40 000 6 players tournaments) I founded that ICM is good, but not enouth.
1. It does not take into account the player's position in relation to the blinds. For example BB position have significant less chanses to win tournament then SB or BTN positions.
2. It does not take into account players cooperation versus short stack player. And statistic shows that this regularity takes place.

Is there any some more advanced general ICM models? Or I should just do some corrections to ICM, based on position and chips for the specific tournament of my interest.

We have Future Game Simulation in our ICM models and we actually consider players cooperation versus short stack sometimes in our models as well. Maybe you can try these?

Statistics: Posted by botishardwork — Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:54 pm

]]> 2017-04-15T09:22:22+00:00 2017-04-15T09:22:22+00:00 http://poker-ai.org/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=3035&p=7161#p7161 <![CDATA[Re: Extended ICM]]> Tournaments thar I investigate is 6 max SNG. Payouts = 2 tickets of the same value. All others take nothing.
I'm considering below situations when 3 players remaining in tournament.
Some explanations:
FSM(finite state machine) - You call it Hand.
Stacks - Start stacks
Dopuski(Tolerances) - +/- percent of Stacks to validate specific hand as valid hand.
Good_fsm - valid hands
ICM - ICM(Stacks)
EQ_ICM - Average ICM from all valid hands. (In case of skewing in the data)

1. Dont find spoiler tag here, so all data in Research.txt [deleted]
2. The extension txt is not allowed. So, temporaly (while can not do better) post it here.
Quote:

============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:2433 [1.3%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 100010001000000]
Dopuski:[ 20%20%10% ]
Wins: [ 67.6%66.7%65.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.6660.6650.6690.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.6670.6670.6670.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:1887 [1.0%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 11001100800000]
Dopuski:[ 20%20%10% ]
Wins: [ 72.7%70.9%56.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.7100.7100.5800.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.7120.7120.5750.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:958 [0.5%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 12001200600000]
Dopuski:[ 20%20%10% ]
Wins: [ 81.0%78.7%40.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.7660.7620.4720.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.7670.7670.4670.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:827 [0.5%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 12501250500000]
Dopuski:[ 25%25%10% ]
Wins: [ 83.4%81.9%34.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.7950.7940.4110.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.7980.7980.4050.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:601 [0.3%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 13001300400000]
Dopuski:[ 30%30%10% ]
Wins: [ 87.2%85.7%27.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.8260.8270.3470.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.8310.8310.3370.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:581 [0.3%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 13501350300000]
Dopuski:[ 30%30%20% ]
Wins: [ 87.3%87.1%25.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.8630.8630.2740.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.8680.8680.2640.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:300 [0.2%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 13501350200000]
Dopuski:[ 30%30%30% ]
Wins: [ 94.7%92.3%13.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.9010.8980.2010.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.8500.8500.1760.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:1040 [0.6%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 30013501350000]
Dopuski:[ 30%30%30% ]
Wins: [ 23.7%89.7%86.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.2760.8620.8620.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.2640.8680.8680.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:1266 [0.7%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 40013001300000]
Dopuski:[ 20%30%30% ]
Wins: [ 30.7%85.5%83.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.3500.8260.8240.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.3370.8310.8310.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:2149 [1.2%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 50012501250000]
Dopuski:[ 20%30%30% ]
Wins: [ 37.6%81.6%80.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.4190.7930.7880.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.4050.7980.7980.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:3180 [1.8%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 60012001200000]
Dopuski:[ 20%30%30% ]
Wins: [ 44.8%78.1%77.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.4800.7610.7590.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.4670.7670.7670.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:4234 [2.3%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 70011501150000]
Dopuski:[ 20%30%30% ]
Wins: [ 53.4%74.2%72.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.5350.7310.7330.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.5230.7380.7380.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:243 [0.1%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 14002001400000]
Dopuski:[ 30%20%30% ]
Wins: [ 93.8%17.7%88.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.9050.1930.9010.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.9080.1830.9080.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:719 [0.4%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 13503001350000]
Dopuski:[ 30%20%30% ]
Wins: [ 90.0%22.5%87.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.8630.2770.8600.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.8680.2640.8680.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:1337 [0.7%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 13004001300000]
Dopuski:[ 30%20%30% ]
Wins: [ 85.7%30.6%83.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.8250.3500.8250.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.8310.3370.8310.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:2201 [1.2%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 12505001250000]
Dopuski:[ 30%20%30% ]
Wins: [ 82.6%36.9%80.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.7900.4200.7900.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.7980.4050.7980.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:3226 [1.8%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 12006001200000]
Dopuski:[ 30%20%30% ]
Wins: [ 78.8%43.9%77.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.7600.4800.7600.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.7670.4670.7670.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:4353 [2.4%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 11507001150000]
Dopuski:[ 30%20%30% ]
Wins: [ 75.4%51.5%73.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.7330.5360.7310.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.7380.5230.7380.0000.0000.000]


============ RESEARCH ===============
Tournaments:10800 FSM:180957 GOOD_FSM:5355 [3.0%]
Blinds: 100/50 Ante: 20
Pos: [ BTN SB BB ]
Stacks: [ 11008001100000]
Dopuski:[ 30%20%30% ]
Wins: [ 72.9%57.6%69.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%]
EQ_ICM: [ 0.7080.5870.7060.0000.0000.000]
ICM: [ 0.7120.5750.7120.0000.0000.000]

Statistics: Posted by nefton — Sat Apr 15, 2017 9:22 am

]]> 2017-04-14T08:41:19+00:00 2017-04-14T08:41:19+00:00 http://poker-ai.org/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=3035&p=7159#p7159 <![CDATA[Extended ICM]]> 1. It does not take into account the player's position in relation to the blinds. For example BB position have significant less chanses to win tournament then SB or BTN positions.
2. It does not take into account players cooperation versus short stack player. And statistic shows that this regularity takes place.

Is there any some more advanced general ICM models? Or I should just do some corrections to ICM, based on position and chips for the specific tournament of my interest.

Statistics: Posted by nefton — Fri Apr 14, 2017 8:41 am

]]>