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 Post subject: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:21 am 
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Some summary:
http://bluff.com/blogs/stoxtrader-cheating-scandal

Bluff wrote:
So the scoreboard looks like this:
Stoxtrader admits to multi-accounting (which violate the terms and conditions of Full Tilt Poker)
Brian Townsend multi-accounted and used a shared database (two violations)
Brian Hastings used a shared database.


DonkDown (former NeverWinPoker) thread:
http://www.donkdown.com/forum/official- ... ml?start=0

DanDruff wrote:
To be honest, this looks really bad for Stoxtrader.

He was accused of using a specific account ("40putts"). That account was also accused in the past of collusion.

Stox came back with a weird and convoluted response, essentially admitting to multi-accounting, but denying it was for cheating purposes. He did NOT deny being 40putts, which is very suspicious. If he was multi-accounting but using an account other than the shady one suspected, he would have said so. He didn't, so I'd be surprised if he wasn't guilty.

I will try to get him on radio, too, but he probably will refuse. I'll also have to ask Viffer if he'd come on simultaneously with Stox. Otherwise, we would have them separately. I am guessing Stox won't appear.


Basically, there is also a long thread on 2+2 where donkdown claim 2+2 is censoring stuff. I didn't dig long enough into this to come with own opinion who's right or wrong.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19/hi ... on-733894/
Viffer's deleted post: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19/hi ... on-733894/

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Sat Mar 20, 2010 11:31 am 
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Seems that Stoxpoker coach now also resigned:

Stoxpoker on 2+2 wrote:
It is with a heavy heart that I must announce my resignation as a stoxpoker coach today. I have put the company in a difficult position given the recent negative publicity surrounding my breaking poker sites terms of service, and refusal to publicly explain my January 2010 account switch. It is true that I had multiple accounts, though it is not true that I ever used them to gain an advantage or played them simultaneously. I had two accounts at both pokerstars and FTP for 4 years - stoxtrader at both sites was used to prep and produce poker training videos. I generally played lower stakes than my normal games on that account. I also played on 40putts at FTP and knockstiff at pokerstars - these were the only accounts I played my normal games on until January 2010. In January I decided that I needed to switch names. I cannot say why I made that decision, but it is the same reason why I have not been active in the 2+2 forums defending myself and it is something that is ongoing and I cannot make public. I played on these new accounts (bulltf0rdtuff and gr3atvlewbr0) for approximately one month. None of those accounts have been in use since and I will be taking an indefinite break from playing any poker at all.

Because of this, Stoxpoker and I will be parting ways. In regards to the collusion allegations between 40putts and Kinetica and Littlezen and Knockstiff, they are false. In the past I have discussed poker strategy with kinetica and littlezen and we practice similar table selection strategies. I am confident that a full review of our play by the pokersites involved will corroborate this. I apologize for breaking the terms of service of the pokersites by having multiple accounts and hopefully I can continue to contribute to 2+2 and stoxpoker as a regular member in the future and not a representative of Stoxpoker.

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Sat Mar 20, 2010 12:23 pm 
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indiana wrote:
Seems that Stoxpoker coach now also resigned:

Nah, stoxtrader (Nick) resigned FROM Stoxpoker/Cardrunners as a coach/videomaker because of the scandal.

What seems to have started this, was LeatherAss, another coach from Stoxpoker leaving in january. Around the same timeframe stoxtrader moved from 40putts (on FT) to another account, which makes people believe that LeatherAss was providing the identity for stoxtrader's 40putts. Some insider leaked some stuff (deleted by 2+2), another insider contacted vieffer (the guy with purple hair on some Poker After Dark episodes) who pushed it further, some more 2+2 mod deletion of what he posted, but the thing was out and stoxtrader admitted to multiaccounting stoxtrader/40putts and his other accounts (on both Stars and FTP). There have been allegation of collusion/softplay against 40putts which makes the whole thing even more fun. Specific softplay against another player (kinetica) when HU in pots, and some team up in multiway pots to squeeze opponents. Added to the fact they mostly played same hours/same tables.

It's unknown if he used a VPN and/or separate computer, to differentiate his play from his "other" account, the real stoxtrader account on which he played from time to time to make training videos. But it makes one wonder about the state of "security" at these sites. I can understand he got a VIP treatment from FTP should they have known about it because of FTP/CardRunners/Stoxpoker business relationship but Stars security, had they caught this, would have been way too happy to shame the guy and FTP.


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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 4:18 pm 
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This case now from time to time turns to a mob lynch for a guy (and a site) that a lot of people enjoyed and learned a lot from.

Normally, many people create a second account on FTP due to the rakeback (which they missed to get with their first account). FTP is discovering these sooner or later, and just merging the accounts (closing the new one, moving the money to the first one, and let the first one be used).

So in short, IMO Stoxtrader already got more than what he deserved for creating such second account. The only thing unclear is the lack of any explanation (from him) why he did that, although there aren't also any indications he did that for any malicious purpose.

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 5:16 pm 
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indiana wrote:
So in short, IMO Stoxtrader already got more than what he deserved for creating such second account. The only thing unclear is the lack of any explanation (from him) why he did that, although there aren't also any indications he did that for any malicious purpose.

There are some collusion suspicions though, that were investigated a year ago, and are again under scrutiny. And he did use 2 accounts in //, alledegly one for his videos (but he still played some there outside making videos), and another one to get more action.

Also consider he did the same thing on stars where you can't say you did that for rakeback.


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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Sun Mar 21, 2010 6:04 pm 
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Oh, I for sure don't think he did it for the rakeback (I'm sure that's not the reason on FTP too). Just mentioned that in these cases FTP didn't do anything more than just merging the accounts.

I think the fact that Stoxtrader made no statement toward for what he used the second account is the only thing which raise suspicion (He only posted 20 reasons he didn't used it for :), and said he can't tell why he needed second accoutn due to some personal things.

Btw in the HHEX db for one of the site I find 160k hands of stoxtrader, and no any other hands of any of his account "knockstiff" and just 42 hands of his other account "stoxtrader", and 0 hands for "40putts", "builtf0rdtuff" and "greatvl3wbr0".

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 10:59 pm 
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lol, seems Stoxtrader admitted already in 2006 in mutli-accounting (on a no longer existing blog):

Reposted, guy in 2p2 wrote:
using unkown screenames is nice
By Stoxtrader on December 18, 2006

So people ask me these days if i still play or why they don't see me in the higher games. The answer is that "stoxtrader" does not play all that often anymore. I have done it both ways - keeping the same name at different sites for an extended period of time, and now using 100% incognito names at all different sites and I see pros and cons to both.

I like the current way and am enjoying being a normal player. not having to say hello to the regulars and make small talk. Not worrying as much about he knows that i know that he knows. That can get mentally taxing and I probably wasn't all that good at it anyways. I mean sometimes i forget the memo, are we on the second level today or the third?

anyways, poker and life beat on, things are good and I am finishing the year strong, this site is growing rapidly and my involvement in the forums is still extensive but there are now many quality posters who are making good threads without my involvement, it's great to see.

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Fri Mar 26, 2010 1:48 am 
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haha, good find. It seems odd that he would publicly put that on record at any point. Just goes to show ya ...

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2010 5:48 pm 
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Lol, seems that witch-hunting on coaches continues :)

Now 2+2 mod (has also coaching site AFAIU) is under pressure for some ToS violation 2-3 years ago (where he admits he violated ToS intentionally for thinking it's not a big deal):

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/in ... os-754423/

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Wed Apr 07, 2010 6:46 pm 
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After reading that thread I now remember why I do not read 2+2 haha.

I much prefer the Indiana summaries of the occasional somewhat interesting things happening over there :)

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Sat Apr 10, 2010 10:33 pm 
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Now it might be that Stoxtrader colluded / soft-play amongst the various accounts.

Some guy (NoahSD) wrote a 47 pages paper on this together with pokertableratings :)
I didn't have the nerves to read that and make my mind of is it correct so I'll wait for the public rewiew and conclusion.

PTR article:
http://www.pokertableratings.com/blog/2010/04/stoxpoker-collusion-investigation/

Noah's PDF:
http://www.pokertableratings.com/docs/StoxtraderCollusionAnalysis.pdf

New 2+2 thread on the topic:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/19/hi ... dr-757267/

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Star
PostPosted: Wed Apr 14, 2010 9:02 pm 
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47 pages and his language is calm and objective.
Lots of stats and graphics and all are pretty evident.
Sounds pretty serious too me, despite I didn't read everything.

Quote:
LittleZen
LittleZen is a professional shortstacker on Stars. Of the 500,547 hands that PTR has on him, 323,325
(64.6%) were played with less than 25 BBs. Of the 30,180 hands that PTR has on both him and
knockstiff, LittleZen had less than 25 BBs in 19,186 (63.6%). In my own database (which is missing a
lot of hands at 50 BB+ tables), I have 529,531 hands on him. 463,976 (87.6%) of those were played
with less than 50 BBs, 430,898 (81.4%) were played with less than 30 BBs, and 393,266 (74.3%) were
played with less then 25 BBs.
The fact that he's a professional shortstacker is very important for my case. If he were playing with
100 BBs, then he could have lots of sophisticated reasoning for playing very differently against
different player's open raises. With less than 25 BBs or so, a reasonable player almost always just
shoves or folds against an open raise. In my database, LittleZen's response when someone open raised
when it folded to him was to shove 10% of the time and call 0.8% of the time, so he clearly agrees.


Attachment:
collusion.jpg
collusion.jpg [ 40.29 KB | Viewed 1107 times ]

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Fri Apr 16, 2010 8:45 pm 
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Actually I just realised that the above confidence intervals are 68%. If you put 96% I guess you would get another player in the same range as the one accused of collusion. (And one of his last graphs are with std2 - i.e. 96% and there that's visible).

Honestly, that's really far away from something even remotely close to a proof, despite that it looks nice visually (and it is relatively expected that they colluded). I guess PS and FTP need to run more stats on their actual hands and actually confirm this.

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 Post subject: Re: Stoxtrader Nick Grudzien and others multi-accounting on Stars/FT
PostPosted: Fri Apr 16, 2010 9:45 pm 
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I posted on 2+2 some reply to Noad that did the investigation, looking into (just the first 1-2 pages) of the paper. IMO think he still has some work to do :)

Here it goes:

Quote:
with x% of hands on average, but he might have been dealt those hands more or less than x% of the time.


That seems to me wrong (using "x" in both places) but no issue anyway, it's clear what you mean.

Quote:
Also notice how small the error bar is on knockstiff (+/- 0.36%). This is because of the very large sample of hands that they've played with each other and the fact that error tends to be smaller with smaller 3-bet %s. It's that small error that allows me to say confidently that LittleZen plays differently against knockstiff.


Hm, from that you can say confidently that he 3bet with 2% against him, but not that he played differently.

Disection of this other 4.4% player:
Quote:
The odds that LittleZen's actual 3-bet % against knockstiff is 4.4% and he just happened to show up at 2% in PTR's sample are extremely low (about one in 3.5 million).

Here you again stress on the less relevant (IMO) fact, or at least you need to revise the expose of the whole thing.
You leave the impression of something dramatic - hinting the odds of not cheating is 1/3.5m, while it is only (the irrelevant fact) just repeating the above thing that you simply have enough hands of these two guys and the 3bet range is 2% with high confidence.

Quote:
The data is even more extreme if I compare with the (weighted) average of the 3-bet %s of the other 48 players. That number is 8.0%, 16.6 standard deviations away from the mean.


Now this is the first I would consider some evidence, comparing with the average, although I don't understand what means "weighted average". If you took #of hands into account and have few players with lots of hands and rest with small, that's a big skew. The guys with the most hands will determine the mean, and then std can easily be big.

And now getting back, to what you did not discuss:

Quote:
The error bars represent about a 68.2% confidence interval (calculated by SQRT(3-bet % *(1-3-bet%)/sample) ). Double the error bars and you get a 95.5% confidence interval.

Now if you do that:
If you conclude from your data and expose in this chapter that these two guys (LittleZen and knockstiff) colluded, then this other 4% 3bet guy colluded as well with 5% probability, which is not ignorable probability. OK - the hands played for this other guy are much less (I would have expected that you post the #of hands played, btw), but I don't know how to techically bring that into the picture and come to a better number.

Then you go to a discussion that there might have been a valid reason to play differently (by having most amount of hands on each other or knowing their play, etc), but for me the above is a weaker part (that needed to be improved) rather the theory for the possible different play.

In summary, again from my very fast reading of the first pages, based on the data I would certainly bet a lot of money that they colluded - but for me it isn't sufficient to persuade me it is a certain event.
To put it dumb, it looks to me that there is 5% chance they didn't colluded (In fact it's less, but I don't know how to techically get to the lesser number. And you certainly did not prove, even point to, a better/smaller number, or I don't get how you do that)?

Maybe another way to improve is somehow combine probabilities for the various behaviours (in the different types of actions).

Only think I want to point is none of the numbers like 16stds, 1/35 million etc. apply to the probability of cheating/not-cheating. Would be good to get to such number ...

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