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 Post subject: Downswings
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 5:29 pm 
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Just here to grip about the variance in HUSNG's. I am nothing more than a recreational poker player beyond botting. After seeing first hand how huge the variance can be I could never actually play these. It wold literally drive me crazy and I cold not continue playing. I understand that it is completely statistically possible to have huge losing streaks but it still amazing to actually see.

Anyway, the graph attached is from the same bot playing almost 1k games of $2 HUSNG on one network. Over the last 200 games or so it is down about 30 buy ins. The interesting part is at the same time it is playing the same amount of $5 and $10 dollar games and consistently winning.


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File comment: Downswing graph
Prizes Won over Tournaments Played.png
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 Post subject: Re: Downswings..
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:47 pm 
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I can't tell, are these limit or NL games? 1k games really isn't enough. You need at least 6k games of duplicate poker in HUL to get a mediocre reading. If you want to get a good idea of variance, pit two of the same strategies against one another (i.e. Spartbot vs. Spartbot) for a few 100k games and look at the swings. If you're talking about NL, the variance is much much worse.


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 Post subject: Re: Downswings..
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:53 pm 
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Can you tell us more about your bot?
What kind of AI do you use? Is it normal, turbo, hyper turbo HUSNG. NL, limit?


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 Post subject: Re: Downswings..
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:16 pm 
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The bot is playing normal speed NL HUSNG's. That is a small sub sample of a specific limit on one network. I just think its interesting how much variance is actually possible and the physiological effect it must have. If it was me playing I would be really tilted. Also, it is a nash equilibrium bot generated using CFRM.


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 Post subject: Re: Downswings..
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:22 pm 
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A solid winning player with little apparent variance, complaining about variance.

Reminds me of this comic strip: http://www.firstworldgripes.com/2011/09/money/


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 Post subject: Re: Downswings..
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:25 pm 
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From my experience in tournament botting, 30 buyin upswings/downswings are to be expected (I had them regularly) - and since these are regular (like every 1k tournaments or so for my bot), I guess than bigger ones happen too, only less often.


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 Post subject: Re: Downswings..
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:11 am 
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wetbot wrote:
A solid winning player with little apparent variance, complaining about variance.


I am not complaining but just thought it was interesting as that is the largest downswing I've seen for my bot. I can see a large downswing happening for a human due to tilt or whatever but the bots strategy is static. Also, it makes me wonder if one of my "improvements" broke something :xx07


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 Post subject: Re: Downswings..
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2012 5:35 pm 
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well, in that case don't exclude that this can be bug, just play some more games, if you are -EV, then probably something is not okay.


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