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 Post subject: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2010 2:25 pm 
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Yesterday, after a couple of beers, I asked me this question : "Why the hell am I making a bot".

The first answer is simple : money.

Ok but... Is the time invested worth it ? Yes.. I think it is !

Ok but... why do I want more money ?
To stop working ? No. Moreover, I think I'll never win from poker the same amount I earn from my (beloved) work.
To try to work at 80% ? Why not, but it's not the main reason.

So what is this reason ?

The answer punched me while I was going home by train.
When I saw stupid young idiots speaking like monkeys, lisnening f...ing bad pseudo-music (ie hip hop), starting all their sentences with "mec" (something like a french translation of "guy", a fashion way of speaking...), I remembered !

I remembered that each time I was irritated by someone (in the train, my house owner, my neighbor who beats his wife and insult mine, etc.) my motivation was raising a lot.

So it's for money, of course, but for a money which will give me more freedom, more independence.
So I could tell to my house owner who want to raise my rent : "go f..ck yourself with your raise ! I DO have the money to move elsewhere. I DO have the money to handle court fees.
Some things like that.

That's my motivation.

What's yours ?


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2010 8:28 pm 
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Mine motivation is similar (perhaps without the angry background ;).
Although now that my bot starts to be profitable and it looks like I'll be able to live of the winnings, I start to see that, even at this stage, it's not all a bed of roses.
IMO it's unreasonable to assume that botting will still be viable in 10 years. Also, for me it's hard to assume that I'll be able to amass $1m in winnings (a rough sum that allows to live semi-confortably off the interests) before internet poker dries up completely. So, it seems necessary for me to either start a business (more sustainable than botting) or continue a career in IT.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2010 9:55 pm 
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For me the motivation is simply that it is the right combination of things. I need to do something from home, I want to do some AI experimenting, I can afford a few months of downtime no income while getting ready. I really need a break from the grueling pace of software work (usual 60 hour weeks, no vacations, sometimes even working holidays). I would consider just playing live - at least live poker is sort of fun - but I'm living in a place where live poker isn't really possible except home games, and you can't make a living in home games. It seems a great waste of time to just sit at the computer clicking the mouse trying to grind for rakeback, when instead I could maybe make a real contribution to AI research or at least have free time to try to invent other things. Almost any productive activity is an improvement over grinding the poker client.

If it doesn't work out, I'll probably try to start a startup, or at least go to work for a very small one. I don't rule out going back to the cubicle but it's definitely the fallback plan at this point. Cubicle is by far the best mix of stability and income but I'm not optimizing for that parameter.

Why do you think internet poker will dry up in the next few years? I think it is as bad right now as it is ever going to be, with deposit problems in the US and most 10/8 grinder players playing as many tables as they can keep track of. Movement in the US is toward legalization now, even if it doesn't pass this year, it may pass next. More effort being spent catching colluders and such. I can't see any pressure to make the games worse than they have been. Or do you think the sites will get so good at catching bots that it's impractical? I don't believe that, simply because the owner of the computer always has the advantage in the battle.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Wed Sep 15, 2010 10:24 pm 
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@psilon

My main concerns are:
1. Sooner or later, online poker grinding will be discovered by 1.4 billions of chinese, 1 billion of indians and hundreds of millions of people from vietnam, indonesia, laos and even african countries. There are barriers of entry for them right now (no training sites/materials in their language, poor internet connections, perhaps difficulties to cash out etc.) but these won't last forever and imo sooner or later we'll get flooded by players who consider $500 to be an amazing monthly salary. It will obviously demolish the winrates across all low/microstakes games.
2. For some time now, we are experiencing a trend of partitioning player pools by the legislators (into sites like pokerstars.it, pokerstars.it etc). This will probably continue to get worse with time.
3. The legislators legalize poker mainly because they want to tax it. For a poker-agnostic legislator, it's very easy to create a tax which basically destroys the games altogether. This is what happened in Poland with live poker tournaments - they are legal now, but the taxes are so ridiculous that no one's even organising them.

All in all, I'm not saying that low/microstakes online poker will be definitely be dead in 10 years. I'm just saying that it's a serious possibility, and everyone who's trying to make a living out of it (by either botting or grinding manually) should be aware of the risk.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Thu Sep 16, 2010 11:01 am 
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Well, those are all valid concerns but I have a more optimistic viewpoint.

#1 is certainly the most interesting one of those. I have a hard time predicting it as I don't understand why Western players play at the penny stakes at all, unless they are learning the game. The stakes are so low that gambling at those stakes is just not interesting. And obviously, it is not profitable either. Yet, there are more penny stakes games than the more interesting (from a gambling stakes standpoint) $.25 to $5 bb games.

It's true that Chinese players could make a living at $.05 bb whereas Western players could not. On the other hand, even at $.10 or $.25 blinds the level of play is low enough that I don't see why anyone would stop at $.05. But that is now.

So if you go into the future, and say that there are maybe as many players in China & India as there are in North America and Europe, this is not going to take the Westerners out of the game. They'll still play and probably at the same stakes as before. I don't see any reason why the fish/pro ratio should be worse in Asia than in the West. So what we'll see, I would expect, is an increase in the number of penny stakes games, which will play perhaps a little tougher, but they probably won't be any tougher than the $.25 bb level is now. And that level is beatable. There might even be even lower stakes catering to the Chinese market.

I don't think #2 or #3 will come to pass, but I would point out that #2 would also solve #1. I'll focus on the US as the US is the place where the gray legal status is in effect, the legalization/regulation efforts are in process and obviously the US is also the biggest poker market overall. Nobody wants #2 to happen as I think everyone realizes it has been a mistake in France and Italy. No one is even mumbling about it in the US (though there are some ideas to segregate some US states, I believe these will all fail, as there are just too many things that have to happen). As for #3, the US legislators (well, Barney Frank who is pushing the bills) are just not that incompetent. Regarding poker, anyway. :) The current proposals in the US all have reasonably low tax rates that the sites are supportive of. Legislators don't want a tax that kills the games as they already pretend the games aren't legal, so a tax like that would accomplish nothing.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Thu Sep 16, 2010 8:26 pm 
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In the short term i would like to earn enough to be able to avoid getting an actual job, which would cut down my potential by eating down most of my time, my freedom and my stamina.
In the medium term i would like to use the time i freed by poker botting and any additional resource to set up a proper self-sustainable business, ideally after traveling a couple of years because making a world trip is my long time dream.
In the long term i hope to finally earn more than what just poker botting can provide, so poker botting is not critical in my long term planning.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Thu Sep 16, 2010 10:01 pm 
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My first bot has helped me not having to get a regular job, so I work full time with mainly my new bot. I hope it will make me (and my partners) silly rich, and also I have learnt much in the process. When I have been a good boy I will buy a jeep grand cherokee srt8, a proper boyz toy!

0

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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 8:52 am 
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You want a proper boys toy... get a Rage Buggy! When I've got money to burn I'll be getting one of those. :)

0-60 in 3 seconds.... and off road!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96E2NWFnEY4

And check out this for acceleration!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMc_Ug5M ... re=related


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:52 am 
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Well, everyone is talking about money but I find it pretty difficult to make a living from botting at the moment. I have been working on my bot for more than two years now and I can only make about 20% of my salary from it (some people could live with that amount of money but I can't).

I am pretty sure I would have won a lot more money spending time on perfecting my poker skills than coding my bot.

So, my motivations are :
- Fun ! The idea of making money while sleeping is just amazing.
- Increasing my coding skills. I do not develop a lot anymore in my job, but if I have to it is brainless coding (I don't know if it's proper english but you get the idea). I like to stay sharp in this area to be able to manage developers (well, I am pretty sure I am way better in coding than most developers I work with...).
- Eventually learn as much as I can in AI to be able to make tools to play with stock markets. That is the next project I have in mind, but it is just fiction atm.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 11:59 am 
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@Zoobie

Don't give up IMO, in my case the difference between a breakeven and winning AI was just a few weeks of work - I rewrote a major AI component and that was enough for the bot to play well enough to win (unless I'm yet to experience some massive downswing - then I'm back to the drawing board).

AFAIK stock market and other financial markets are currently infested with bots owned by banks and other financial institutions. My understanding is that you need to come up with some really innovative idea to be able to beat them. Otherwise it's just you vs large teams of good/great coders/researchers employed by banks.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 12:26 pm 
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PolarBear wrote:
Don't give up IMO, in my case the difference between a breakeven and winning AI was just a few weeks of work - I rewrote a major AI component and that was enough for the bot to play well enough to win (unless I'm yet to experience some massive downswing - then I'm back to the drawing board).

Well, I have a winning AI. It makes a decent profit but not enough to buy an island an drink cocktails all day long :)

PolarBear wrote:
AFAIK stock market and other financial markets are currently infested with bots owned by banks and other financial institutions. My understanding is that you need to come up with some really innovative idea to be able to bet them. Otherwise it's just you vs large teams of good/great coders/researchers employed by banks.

My goal is not to really make money from it but to learn enough in this area to eventually change jobs in a few years. I would only invest the money won by my poker bot.

I already worked in a small company that was building a financial bot when I was a student and it really was not rocket science. The people I worked with were just insanely good (the founders had between 30 and 50 years of experience) and found a "breach" they heavily exploited. They also had very big investors, so the trading fees were negligible. It surely won't be the case for me.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 3:12 pm 
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'cause it's fun!


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 4:29 pm 
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Call me lazy, but for me the idea of fun generally revolves around playing magic: the gathering, civilization, meeting friends and reading books (these btw will def be the main ingredients of my next vacation, when I can finally afford to take it), not coding stuff :)


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 7:24 pm 
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PolarBear wrote:
Call me lazy, but for me the idea of fun generally revolves around playing magic: the gathering, civilization, meeting friends and reading books (these btw will def be the main ingredients of my next vacation, when I can finally afford to take it), not coding stuff :)


I hope you've got a vacation planned soon, Civ V is out next Tuesday. I'm taking a week off just to get that out of my system.

In terms of making money with botting, in most cases anyone who can make a bot would make equal/more money by just playing cards. It's one of the reasons the field isn't larger - there's a lot of capable programmers who play cards (at least among the group of people I know who play).

When it comes to monetizing botting, I think 0svald has the best approach. AI via web service calls is a fantastic way to do the interesting (and more complex) part of botting without any of the headaches of scraping / injection / stealth / getting banned. If we ever see a service pop up that allows automating clients (and doesn't get banned like open hold'em) I think we may start seeing people licensing both solutions - then everybody makes money. The odds of that happening though are probably slim to none.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:54 pm 
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I've been a gambling addict for quite a long time, even though I understand math very well and I understand that there is just no way winning longterm in casinos/sportsbetting and also playing poker in the way I am (very recreational high stakes playing style), I keep playing and losing a lot of money. It's just the brain needs physically the kick I get from gambling.
Main motivation for me to write a poker bot is therefore to play using the bot and get my gambling kick, but with actually having an edge in longterm, even a breakeven AI would be a great profit for me overall.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 9:29 pm 
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can some one help me with a profile for shanky


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 3:50 pm 
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0svald wrote:
When I have been a good boy I will buy a jeep grand cherokee srt8, a proper boyz toy!

Buy a hooker, that is a proper boyz toy! :drink


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:40 pm 
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You can buy them now? I usually only see them for rent :xx19


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Mon Nov 08, 2010 2:22 pm 
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psilon wrote:
You can buy them now? I usually only see them for rent :xx19

You marry one you bought one. And you can't return her without a major financial penalty.


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 Post subject: Re: Why the hell am I making a bot ??
PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 3:57 am 
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Or just ask your local human trafficker for the latest prices for buying.

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